Greg Carmichael

 Regional Scale Forecasting and Experiment-Specific Emission Estimates of Gas and Aerosol Distributions in Support of the TRACE-P Experiment

Abstract

            A research plan to conduct regional scale forecasting and to prepare experiment-specific emission estimates of key aerosol and gaseous species in East Asia in support of the TRACE-P experiment is proposed. Two specific activities are proposed:

        (1) Provide experiment-specific emission estimates of primary aerosol and gaseous precursors needed to conduct detailed chemical/aerosol modeling in the region;
        (2) Provide 3-dimensional regional-scale forecasts of aerosol and trace gas distributions in support of the intensive field operations.

Improved estimates of emissions are needed to support modeling efforts in the field and post mission, and to assist in the interpretation of the observations. Our proposed work related to this activity builds strongly upon on-going work. An important aspect of our past and present research efforts has been related to improving emission estimates of primary particulates and trace gases in East Asia. In this proposed work we will focus on improving the temporal and spatial resolution of these emissions to provide emission estimates to directly support the TRACE-P experiment. One aspect of this work will be to develop emission estimates that correspond to the temporal characteristics of the Trace-P experiment (i.e., month-specific with some day/hourly variation). Measurements from the monitoring activities in the region should provide valuable information on seasonal and daily variations, that may be used in this emissions work. Improvements in the spatial resolution will build upon our information on large point sources, and will also utilize additional satellite derived quantities such as aerosol index from TOMS, column NO_x from GOME, etc.

  The second major effort of our proposal will be directed towards providing 3-dimensional forecasts of aerosol and trace gas distributions in support of the intensive field operations using a combined modeling system that includes on-line and off-line versions of STEM, coupled with the RAMS model. We propose two types of products to be produced during the Ace-Asia intensive period:

Product #1: 3-dimensional forecasts of tracer fields using RAMS, with tracer-transport done on-line within RAMS. Here we plan to produce continuous 48-hour forecasts of a variety of tracers/markers to support the planning of the next day missions. The meteorological and tracer fields will be displayed in Vis5d to facilitate trajectory and other analysis in support of mission planning.

Product #2: 3-dimensional forecasts of chemical and aerosol fields. Here we propose to use the meteorological fields from Product #1 to drive STEM and to provide forecast fields of trace gas and primary and secondary aerosol distributions. This analysis will provide another level of detail, specifically related to trace gas distributions as well as the predicted fields of secondary and primary aerosol, for use in mission planning.